Forecast · update · score your calibration

Foresight

A calibrated forecasting board for the Board Chair · Board Chair. Set a probability, log what would change your mind, and when a question resolves, a Brier score tells you how well your judgment tracked reality.

Forecasts

calibration (Brier): 0.081 · excellent

Open forecasts

Will the strategic partnership be signed before the Born Between 2 Generals?70% yes

Update estimate

Will attendance exceed 200 at the anniversary soirée?55% yes

trail: 40% → 55%

Update estimate

Resolved

Will the venue change last-minute?resolved NO · Brier 0.040

trail: 30% → 20%

Will national press cover the Born Between 2 Generals?resolved YES · Brier 0.122

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