Forecast · update · score your calibration

Foresight

A calibrated forecasting board for Gen. Mike Flynn · Board Chair. Set a probability, log what would change your mind, and when a question resolves, a Brier score tells you how well your judgment tracked reality.

Open forecasts

calibration (Brier): 0.081 · excellent

Will the strategic partnership be signed before the 80th Anniversary Summit?70% yes

Update estimate

Will attendance exceed 200 at the anniversary soirée?55% yes

trail: 40% → 55%

Update estimate

Resolved

Will the venue change last-minute?resolved NO · Brier 0.040

trail: 30% → 20%

Will national press cover the 80th Anniversary?resolved YES · Brier 0.122