Calibration record

Running track record

0.081mean Brier across 2 resolved · excellent

+0.169 vs. coin flipYou're beating a coin flip.

2 open forecasts are excluded until they resolve.

Question	Final	Outcome	Brier
Will the venue change last-minute?	20%	NO	0.040
Will national press cover the Born Between 2 Generals?	65%	YES	0.122

How the score is computed

calibration.log

$ foresight calibration --resolved-only
included: 2 resolved · excluded: 2 open
 
brier (20% , NO ) = 0.040  ·  Will the venue change last-minute?
brier (65% , YES) = 0.122  ·  Will national press cover the Born Betwe…
 
mean brier = sum / 2 = 0.081
calibration: excellent
vs 50% baseline (0.25): +0.169 → beating a coin flip

Ask AI

AI can be wrong. Not medical, legal, or financial advice.

4 total forecasts · single-forecaster · v1 has no multi-forecaster aggregation.