Running track record
0.081mean Brier across 2 resolved · excellent
Lower is better. 0 is a perfect, fully-confident, correct call; 1 is maximally wrong. 2 open forecasts are excluded until they resolve.
| Question | Final | Outcome | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the venue change last-minute? | 20% | NO | 0.040 |
| Will national press cover the 80th Anniversary? | 65% | YES | 0.122 |
How the score is computed
calibration.log
$ foresight calibration --resolved-onlyincluded: 2 resolved · excluded: 2 openbrier (20% , NO ) = 0.040 · Will the venue change last-minute?brier (65% , YES) = 0.122 · Will national press cover the 80th Anniv…mean brier = sum / 2 = 0.081calibration: excellent
4 total forecasts · single-forecaster · v1 has no multi-forecaster aggregation.