Forecast · update · score your calibration

Foresight

A calibrated forecasting board for Gen. Mike Flynn · Board Chair. Set a probability, log what would change your mind, and when a question resolves, a Brier score tells you how well your judgment tracked reality.

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Will attendance exceed 200 at the anniversary soirée?55% yes

trail: 40% → 55%

Update estimate
% yes

How my mind changed

  1. 40% yes
    Opening estimate · 2026-06-10 17:35Z

    Early RSVP pace is slower than the spring event.

  2. 55% yes
    Update 1 · 2026-06-25 17:35Z

    Two board members confirmed they're bringing delegations; pace picked up.

Calibration log

calibration.log
$ foresight history --q cmr0xg4230002mtjum67qt8md
question: Will attendance exceed 200 at the anniversary soirée?
 
[2026-06-10 17:35Z]  estimate=40%  (opening)
    rationale: Early RSVP pace is slower than the spring event.
[2026-06-25 17:35Z]  estimate=55%  (revised)
    rationale: Two board members confirmed they're bringing delegations; pace picked up.
 
status: OPEN — not yet scored