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Foresight

A calibrated forecasting board for Gen. Mike Flynn · Board Chair. Set a probability, log what would change your mind, and when a question resolves, a Brier score tells you how well your judgment tracked reality.

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Will national press cover the 80th Anniversary?resolved YES · Brier 0.122

How my mind changed

  1. 65% yes
    Opening estimate · 2026-05-31 17:35Z

    A wire reporter asked for the embargoed brief.

Calibration log

calibration.log
$ foresight history --q cmr0xg4250005mtjuqp23ds8g
question: Will national press cover the 80th Anniversary?
 
[2026-05-31 17:35Z]  estimate=65%  (opening)
    rationale: A wire reporter asked for the embargoed brief.
 
[2026-06-28 17:35Z]  RESOLVED YES (1)
brier = (p - outcome)^2 = (0.65 - 1)^2 = 0.122
lower is better · 0 perfect · 1 worst