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Foresight

A calibrated forecasting board for Gen. Mike Flynn · Board Chair. Set a probability, log what would change your mind, and when a question resolves, a Brier score tells you how well your judgment tracked reality.

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Will the venue change last-minute?resolved NO · Brier 0.040

trail: 30% → 20%

How my mind changed

  1. 30% yes
    Opening estimate · 2026-06-05 17:35Z

    Contractor flagged a possible HVAC issue.

  2. 20% yes
    Update 1 · 2026-06-20 17:35Z

    Repair was scheduled; risk down but not gone.

Calibration log

calibration.log
$ foresight history --q cmr0xg4260007mtju4pr3ulte
question: Will the venue change last-minute?
 
[2026-06-05 17:35Z]  estimate=30%  (opening)
    rationale: Contractor flagged a possible HVAC issue.
[2026-06-20 17:35Z]  estimate=20%  (revised)
    rationale: Repair was scheduled; risk down but not gone.
 
[2026-06-29 17:35Z]  RESOLVED NO (0)
brier = (p - outcome)^2 = (0.20 - 0)^2 = 0.040
lower is better · 0 perfect · 1 worst